The opposition entrance is making a method to offer a powerful combat to the BJP on the 2024 election. If all the pieces goes properly, Nitish Kumar can quickly change into the coordinator of the opposition alliance INDIA. In the meantime, the hypothesis about Nitish Kumar contesting from UP within the Lok Sabha elections has additionally intensified.
In accordance with the information company IANS, the Uttar Pradesh unit of Janata Dal United has demanded Nitish Kumar to contest from right here. The group says that if Nitish contests from right here, a giant message will go and the opposition alliance with the get together may even get strengthened.
The discuss of Nitish contesting from UP received extra drive when his shut minister Shravan Kumar visited the state just lately. IP Singh, who was a former minister within the Akhilesh authorities, has additionally declared Nitish as the long run MP of 2024 from Phulpur. In accordance with Singh, Nitish may even be the following Prime Minister of the nation.
In such a state of affairs, there’s a dialogue within the political circles whether or not Nitish Kumar can actually contest the elections from UP? If sure, from the place?
When did Nitish change into a Lok Sabha MP?
After changing into the MLA from Nalanda’s Harnaut in 1985, Nitish Kumar tried his luck within the 1989 Lok Sabha elections. Nitish contested from Barh Lok Sabha seat on Janata Dal ticket. He received the benefit of anti-incumbency towards Congress and received the election by 78 thousand votes.
In 1991 additionally, Nitish received the elections on a Janata Dal ticket. This time the margin of victory was a couple of and a half lakh. After cut up in Janata Dal, Nitish contested from this seat in 1996 election on the image of Samta Celebration. Nitish was profitable in reaching the Parliament this time additionally.
In 1998, 1999 additionally, Nitish reached Lok Sabha from Barh seat. In 2004, Nitish contested elections from Badh and Nalanda seats. Nitish needed to face defeat from Barh seat. Nonetheless, he managed to win from Nalanda. Nitish Kumar resigned from the Lok Sabha after changing into the Chief Minister of Bihar in 2005.
Why the discuss of Nitish contesting from UP?
1. The weak spot of the alliance is UP- Uttar Pradesh has a complete of 80 Lok Sabha seats, which is essential for going to Delhi. In comparison with Bihar, Jharkhand and Bengal, the alliance’s math is weak right here. In UP, Congress, SP and RLD are making ready to contest elections in alliance.
The vote proportion of all of the three events may be very much less as in comparison with BJP. If we take a look at the figures of 2022, the BJP alliance at present has 45 % votes, whereas the opposition entrance has solely 37 %. There’s a hole of 8 % between BJP alliance and INDIA’s vote.
Within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP alliance received greater than 50 % votes. Congress received 6 and SP received 18 % votes. In such a state of affairs, the opposition is attempting to appropriate the equation by including castes. Kurmis (6 per cent) are the second largest OBC caste in UP after Yadavs.
Nitish Kumar is taken into account a giant chief of Kurmi. In such a state of affairs, the opposition desires to domesticate Kurmi along with his assist, particularly in SP UP.
2. Want extra seats to change into PM- Within the assembly of the opposition entrance, the Congress has withdrawn its declare for the submit of Prime Minister, after which Nitish Kumar’s declare is being thought of sturdy.
Political consultants say that if the opposition succeeds in forming the federal government, then the chief of the get together which may have extra seats after the Congress will probably be a powerful contender for the submit of Prime Minister.
There are a complete of 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, out of which Nitish Kumar can contest solely a most of 20 seats. In such a state of affairs, JDU is attempting to contest some seats in Jharkhand and UP as properly, in order that most seats may be received.
Below what circumstances can Nitish contest elections from UP?
Nitish Kumar’s get together doesn’t have a powerful assist base in Uttar Pradesh. Within the 2022 elections, JDU fielded its candidates on 27 seats in UP, however most of them forfeited their deposits. Dhananjay Singh was profitable in saving his deposit solely from Malhani seat.
Political analyst Ratan Mani Lal says – After the formation of a brand new alliance of opposition events, a method may be shaped. Nitish can positively check the dimensions of his recognition by elections.
Nonetheless, it’s troublesome to win from another state besides Bihar as different three to 4 political events are sturdy in UP. If Nitish turns into a face of the complete opposition, then he can attempt his luck.
If Nitish Kumar will get the inexperienced sign from the opposition for the submit of Prime Minister, then he can contest the elections. Consultants say that in 2014, when Narendra Modi turned the prime ministerial candidate from BJP, he contested from Varanasi seat.
Senior journalist Om Prakash Ashk says- Nitish is an skilled participant of political messaging. He’ll contest the Lok Sabha elections solely when he will get political assurance from main events. If Congress, SP and RJD guarantee him the submit of PM, then Nitish can contest elections.
There’s a dialogue about Narendra Modi contesting elections from the South. It’s being stated that this time Modi can contest from any seat in Tamil Nadu together with Varanasi. If Modi goes south, then Nitish can run a marketing campaign to go away the battle by contesting elections from Uttar Pradesh.
These 3 seats, from the place there’s extra discuss of contesting elections
1. Phulpur- BJP’s Keshari Devi Patel is at present the MP from Phulpur seat in Prayagraj district of Uttar Pradesh. There are about 20 lakh voters in Phulpur seat. This seat is dominated by Kurmi, Yadav and Muslim. This seat has been in limelight since 1952.
Jawaharlal Nehru has been MP from right here for 3 instances. VP Singh, who turned the Prime Minister of the nation in 1989, has additionally been an MP from right here. Janeshwar Mishra has additionally represented this seat.
Ashk says – Phulpur seat is the most secure for Nitish in a direct combat between the opposition and the BJP. Right here the equation is in his favor. If he steps into nationwide politics once more, this seat may be very useful for him.
2 leaders (Jawahar Lal Nehru and VP Singh) who have been MPs from Phulpur have been the Prime Minister of the nation. Nitish can strengthen his declare by contesting from Phulpur.
2. Ambedkarnagar- Ritesh Pandey of BSP is at present the MP from Ambedkar Nagar, which got here into existence for the primary time in 2009. This seat is dominated by Muslims and Dalits, however for the final 3 instances solely Brahmin leaders are reaching the Parliament.
Within the 2022 elections, the SP had received all of the 5 seats on this district. The get together has handed over the chair of nationwide basic secretary to Ram Achal Rajbhar and Lalji Verma of the district. Ambedkar Nagar is taken into account to be a stronghold of the SP.
3. Mirzapur- Aside from Phulpur and Ambedkar Nagar, there’s hypothesis that Nitish Kumar will contest from Mirzapur seat as properly. Presently Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal is the MP from right here. This seat can be thought of to be Kurmi dominated.
In 1996, the SP fielded Phoolan Devi and introduced this seat into limelight. Dasyu Sundari Phoolan was additionally profitable in profitable the election. Since 2009, solely Patel leaders have been elected MPs from this seat.
Will BJP be harmed in UP if Nitish contests elections?
Senior journalist Om Prakash Ashk says – The loss can occur when Nitish Kumar contests elections with a typical opposition. If the politics of Bihar goes on caste polarization and Nitish will contest elections from UP, then Purvanchal can positively be affected.
There are about 30 Lok Sabha seats in Purvanchal. In 2019, BJP had received many of the seats. BJP has just lately related Subhaspa with itself to strengthen the fort of Purvanchal.
Nitish’s entry into the fray in UP can change the electoral equation of Prayagraj, Phulpur, Kaushambi, Jaunpur, Mirzapur and Ballia, the place the BJP alliance is at present dominant.
Rajneesh Singh is a journalist at Asian News, specializing in entertainment, culture, international affairs, and financial technology. With a keen eye for the latest trends and developments, he delivers fresh, insightful perspectives to his audience. Rajneesh’s passion for storytelling and thorough reporting has established him as a trusted voice in the industry.
